BAGHDAD — In a bid to stop a spiral of sectarian violence
that has brought Iraq closer to civil war than at any time
since the 2003 U.S. invasion, Iraqi religious leaders and
officials are stepping up calls of unity and restraint.
Even as divisive rhetoric and more
bloodshed between Iraq's majority Shiites, who control the new
government, and disenfranchised minority Sunnis appeared to
magnify the prospect of civil war late last week, condemnations
of the violence — and even a bid to mediate a truce — began to
emerge.
"They have peered over the edge, and
decided that is really where they don't want to go, and now
people are pulling back," says a U.S. diplomat in Baghdad. He
notes "a lot of communication" between Sunni and Shiite leaders
to "see how we put this genie back in the bottle."
With 10 clerics killed in the past two
weeks, and Sunni mosques closed in protest for three days over
the weekend, tensions have escalated. But even Moqtada al-Sadr,
the firebrand Shiite cleric whose militia took on American
forces during two uprisings last year, began a mediation effort
Sunday.
To ease tensions, Mr. Sadr's envoys began
talks Sunday with representatives of both main Shiite and Sunni
parties — the Supreme Council of the Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI)
and the Muslim Clerics' Association, respectively.
Hard-line Sunni militants are largely
behind Iraq's insurgency, which has killed some 500 Iraqis in
recent weeks with suicide car bombs. For many months, Shiites
have been heavily targeted in an apparent bid to provoke a
sectarian backlash and draw them into open conflict.
The latest wave, however, includes the
killing of a prominent Sunni leader and member of the Muslim
Clerics Association, who was whisked away with other Sunnis by
men in Iraqi uniforms.
The Clerics Association is alleged to
have links to the insurgency, but has also helped secure the
release of Western hostages. Its leader, Harith al-Dhari,
accused Shiite militiamen of the Badr Brigade, the Iran-trained
military arm of one of Iraq's most influential political
parties, of being "behind the campaign of killings of preachers
and worshippers."
A senior Badr official denied the claim,
saying it would "only serve to pour fuel on the flames."
Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the most
revered Shiite leader in Iraq, has long called for restraint to
limit revenge. But one of Mr. Sistani's representatives in
Baghdad was himself gunned down late last week.
"[Sistani] has placed enormous restraint
on his followers — [and] that one fact prevents Iraq falling
into a bloodbath," says Imam Hassan Qazwini, a Shiite religious
leader from Iraq, who heads the Islamic Center of America in
Detroit, Mich.
The Clerics' Association is "still in the
shadow of Saddam Hussein; they still do not accept the reality
that Sunni domination is gone," says Mr. Qazwini. "If there is a
civil war, the Sunnis will pay the price. They know that, and
should be the ones who are worried."
The Sunni decision to boycott January
elections means that Sunnis hold only 17 spots in the 275-seat
National Assembly, which has begun work on a new constitution.
Some 1,000 Sunni clerics and tribal leaders met in Baghdad on
Saturday, calling for Iraqi unity and vowing to rejoin the
political process.
In a statement, the new coalition agreed
that "resisting the occupier is a legitimate right," but
condemned "all terrorist acts that target civilians, no matter
the reason."
Some analysts say that the scale of
violence and the rhetoric of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the
self-proclaimed leader of the insurgency, should not blur the
line between acts of terror and those of Sunni resistance. In a
statement widely rejected by Islamic scholars last week, Mr.
Zarqawi justified the killing of innocent Muslims civilians for
jihad.
"There is a difference: the Shiite clergy
have not been killed by the [Clerics' Association], but by
Zarqawi, who is not under their control," says Mustafa Alani,
head of the security and terrorism studies program at the Gulf
Research Center in Dubai. The association has "no militia, and
all people know their influence over Zarqawi is limited, if
anything."
Mr. Dhari's charge that the Iran-trained
militia of Mr. Hakkim's SCIRI has infiltrated the interior
ministry and security services is a "major accusation," says Mr.
Alani. "This is a problem if people in [national] uniform are
serving their party with assassinations and killings."
The U.S. diplomat said that so far he has
seen "no evidence" of such a link. But he acknowledges that the
appointment as interior minister of Bayan Baqir Jabor, a top
SCIRI leader, is a "real lightning rod" that has been "very
sobering to the Sunni community."
The Sunnis meeting on Saturday called for
Mr. Jabor's resignation. Jabor has denied the charges, saying
his ministry "didn't kill anybody," and that it would cooperate
with any group to dent the insurgency.
The stakes are high, as Shiites and
Sunnis weigh their complaints. "I don't believe civil war is
possible at this stage," says Ansari. "But if organized
[attacks] continue, Sunnis will be forced to form a militia"
that could ally with Zarqawi. "Though they do not have the same
aims or the same ideology, they would be fighting the same
enemy," he adds. "The pressure from the other side will force
[Sunnis] to form this for their own self-defense."
Sectarian civil war is a leap for most
Iraqis, who have had a message of nationalism drilled into them
for a generation, during Saddam Hussein's rule, say observers.
"That nationalist message was very
successful, and up to [late 2004] it was rude to ask a person in
Iraq what sectarian group they were," says Toby Dodge, an Iraq
expert at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, a
think tank in London.
What changed, says Mr. Dodge, is that
U.S.-installed interim governments — inspired by Iraqi exiles
with a "highly divisive sense of Iraqi society" — were created
to achieve sectarian balance. The Shiite alliance of parties
that won most seats in the election waged a very sectarian
campaign that Dodge calls "ethnic entrepreneurialism."
"Most depressing is that when you don't
have a state, and you have a law-and-order vacuum," adds Dodge,
"Iraqis must depend on local, communal support — built on
sectarian appeal."