DETROIT -- In the tight race for battleground state Michigan's 17 electoral votes, President Bush's fortunes may rest in the hands of Iraqis.

These Iraqis, however, are not in Baghdad. They're 150,000 politically active immigrants clustered in suburbs of Detroit.

Iraqi-Americans make up almost a tenth of the 1.2 million residents in Oakland County, north of the city, where political analysts say Bush faces his only chance at winning the state. The discontent of the Iraqis, a Christian sect known as Chaldeans, is a huge worry for the Bush campaign.

"It is incredibly ironic," said David Bonior, the ex-Democratic House majority whip who represented Michigan for 26 years. "They're very disappointed with the president."

In 2000, Al Gore narrowly beat Bush in Michigan 51 percent to 46 percent. This year, John Kerry holds a slight edge on him in a state that is a must-win for the Democrat to secure the presidency, according to pollster John Zogby.

The Chaldeans of Oakland County are well-to-do Catholics who traditionally vote Republican, but support for the president among many has turned like the orange leaves falling on the streets.

Bush supporters worry about Republicans such as Ramadi-born dentist Shakib Halabu, 55, of Orchard Lake.

"We tried Bush and now we have chaos in Iraq," said Halabu, who fears for the safety of Iraq's Christian minority. "I would rather try somebody else who might make it better."

Chaldean leader Adhid Miri, 55, backs Bush but is inundated with calls from Iraqis worried about kidnapped relatives.

"Many of my Republican friends say they're not voting for Bush again," Miri said. "Chaldeans are not in his pocket."

Beyond the Chaldeans, Oakland County's most contested precincts are working and middle-class white neighborhoods where most blocks have as many lawn signs for Kerry as for Bush.

All the candidates on the national tickets have campaigned here in recent weeks. Even households are split over the choice, said Kristina Andreski, 14, as she knocked on neighbors' doors in Royal Oak to charm them into backing Kerry.

On Hawthorn Ave., Henry Vasquez, 38, said he's voting for Kerry because he opposes the war - but his wife backs Bush.

"I'll never vote for Kerry," bellowed veteran David Parr, 70, from his doorway. "He's a flip-flopper, and he lied about Vietnam."

Bush still has major Oakland allies, such as Yahya Basha, a Syrian-born doctor with close ties to the White House, who says the war and FBI scrutiny of Muslims are tough issues for the president to overcome.

"My support for Bush is 100 percent, but I have more to answer for in the Muslim community now," said Basha, a Sunni Muslim.

Though Arab and Muslim-Americans are only 1.2 percent of Michigan voters, they are an organized and powerful constituency. Their symbolic center is Dearborn, west of Detroit, where 76 percent backed Bush four years ago. Recent Zogby polling show most now blame him for what they consider the excesses of the Patriot Act, the worsening Arab-Israeli conflict and Iraq insecurity.

Among Sunnis, who adhere to the same branch of Islam as Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein, ceaseless visits by nosy FBI agents have alienated voters.

"After 9-11, they suspected every Muslim-American," said influential cleric Mohamad Mardini, as he drew five FBI agents' business cards from his wallet and spread them across a table in one of Dearborn's Arab cafes.

"I voted for Bush, but now Muslims are not supporting him at all," Mardini said.

A Shiite leader in Dearborn, Imam Hassan Qazwini, 40, once strongly supported Bush and attended a private meeting with Vice President Cheney last month during a campaign stop. Asked whether Cheney was able to woo him back, the bearded and black-turbaned Iraqi smiled coolly and said, "He was gracious."

Around the corner at the Karbalaa mosque, Imam Husham Al-Husainy, 50 - a confidant of Iraq's Shiite leader Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani - also was a Bush man in 2000, who now "leans toward Kerry."

"There is sadness and bitterness here - the liberation of Iraq has died," said the Iraqi.